Tuesday, January 20, 2004
A Brokered Democratic Convention?
Is Howard Dean finished after his third-place finish in Iowa? No. Robert Kuttner explained why last week before a single vote was cast:
Proportional voting. The Democrats no longer use a winner-take-all-system. Thanks to party reforms, votes are allocated proportionally. So, in a nine-person field, a candidate can "win," say, South Carolina with a plurality of 30 percent of the vote -- but only get about 30 percent of that state's delegates. In the old days, the winner would have taken them all.
A persistent field. Several also-rans will doubtless drop out after a few primaries. But the first few primaries could well splinter and give five or six candidates a reason to stay in through March 2 (Super Tuesday), by which time 2,046, or nearly half, the delegates will have been chosen (and splintered). ...
Howard Dean could narrowly win the first two contests, Iowa (45 delegates) on Jan. 19 and New Hampshire (22) on Jan. 27, but not get the necessary momentum to produce an aura of inevitability. These first two events are low-delegate states. The next primary day, Feb. 3, with a a total of 269 delegates at stake, will produce very different headlines.
South Carolina's 45 delegates selected that day will likely be shared by Wesley Clark, Al Sharpton, and John Edwards. In Missouri, with 74 votes, local boy Dick Gephardt will surely come out on top. Oklahoma, with 40 delegates, will be a good state for Clark. New Mexico (26) is Dean territory, but larger Arizona next door (55) could split several ways.
Barring a dramatic change in the dynamics of the race, by Feb. 3 Dean will likely be slowed, but momentum will not shift decisively to Clark (or anyone else). Any of three candidates, Clark, Gephardt, or Dean, could be narrowly leading in the delegate count. Kerry, Edwards, Sharpton, even Kucinich will all have some delegates too.
The longer more than two candidates stay in, the less likely it is that the nominee will emerge early. ...
With proportional representation, this dynamic peels off a few delegates here and a few there. The frontrunner could well come into the convention (stagger in?) with fewer than 40 percent of the delegates. The Democrats also have 715 "super-delegates" who are elected officials and party leaders. But these delegates have no consensus favorite, either.
The New Hampshire tactical situation now favors Dean. General Wesley Clark is appealing to the same voters as John Kerry. John Edwards takes votes from both Clark and Kerry. Dean still has his young people, his union endorsements and a war chest that will allow him to stay in the race no matter what happens in New Hampshire.
The Democratic Party may not have a presidential nominee for several months. This is bad news for Team Bush, as I explain here.
|posted by Jim on 9:45 PM|
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