Thursday, August 14, 2003
Mickey Kaus on the California Hispanic Vote
Kausfiles does not use permalinks. So scroll down to "Hold the Hispanic Hype" if it is not the first story on the page. Key point:
Latinos are an important swing voting group, but not yet the overwhelming, electorate-transforming tide that wishful-thinking Democratic pols and reporters seem to think they are.
I would add that Latino voters are not monolithic in their political views as, say, African-American voters. A California Hispanic family which has resided in the state for three generations is unlikely to have the same political views as an immigrant family fresh across the border.
There have been some recent studies along these lines here and here.
The New York Times put it best:
Although the White House and the Democratic Party have approached Hispanics as if they were an ethnic group with common experiences that predictably inform voting behavior, the poll suggests the extent to which Hispanics are less than monolithic in their background, culture and political beliefs.
Few surveys of Hispanics these days attempt to break down intra-group differences of opinion, unlike the 1992 Latino National Political Survey. This paper by Carole Uhlaner uses some of that data to draw some interesting conclusions.
Example: Mexican Americans (78%) were roughly as likely to register to vote as were Cuban-Americans (86%) but were substantially less likely to actually cast a ballot in 1988 (51% versus 73%).
Uhlaner states, on page 8 of her paper:
Most of these [later studies] find enough differences among the three national origin groups surveyed in the LNPS to argue strongly for analyzing them separately.
I have the complete LNPS report at my office. Will post some more highlights here tomorrow.
|posted by Jim on 1:20 AM|
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