To: Friends

FR: Jim Boulet, Jr.

DT: November 5, 2007

SJ: Tuesday's Elections, Congress and the White House race

363 Days to Go

The American people will decide upon a new president on November 4, 2008. One thing is certain: there will be surprises.

Michael Barone warned Democrats not to count their 2008 chickens before they hatch: "Last week, Democrat Niki Tsongas won a special election with only 51 percent of the vote, in a Massachusetts district where John Kerry won 57 percent in 2004 and would have run much better in 2006. History doesn't stand still."

At this time in 2004, Howard Dean looked to be the Democrat's choice for president while John Kerry, the party's actual choice nine months later, was considered a also ran.

The sheer physical demands of campaigning are bound to shake up the field. A wise man once told me, "tired people make mistakes." No matter how many people Hillary, Mitt or Rudy has on the payroll, there are many things only the candidate can do and only so many hours in a day.

Would a less tired Hillary have fumbled the debate question about driver's licenses for illegal aliens as badly as Hillary actually did?

(All applicants for a driver's license are required by federal law to be given a voter registration form. That form need not be completed in English. Chances are low that anyone offered a voter registration form will say: "I can't accept that form. I am an illegal alien.")

Hillary's mistake won't be the last one made by a candidate. Remember Gerald Ford declaring Poland was independent of the Soviet Union in the 1976 presidential debate? In what is shaping up to be a close 2008 election, anything could tip the balance.

Congress: trench warfare has begun

Roughly 61 House Democrats were elected in 2006 from districts carried by Bush in 2004. These 61, now facing their first reelection campaign, are extremely risk adverse. Meanwhile, many rank and file Democrats are in full-throated anti-war uproar.

So a Democratic-controlled Congress has voted 57 times on Iraq already this year. Multiple votes on amnesty and SCHIP are conducted because they divide Republicans and chew up floor time.

This may change, depending upon what happens on Election Day, 2007. The Farm Bill on the Senate floor right now is expected to occupy most of the next two weeks. Those interested in adding (or defeating) guest worker/amnesty amendments to this bill will draw lessons from the Virginia election results.

A Tale of Two Virginia Suburbs

Alexandria is a suburb across the Potomac from our nation's capitol. Last month, the Alexandria City Council declared their town a sanctuary for illegal aliens. One preening Alexandria politician boasted to the press that he did not care what it cost taxpayers to provide city services to illegal aliens. Last week, Alexandria official announced likely budget problems for next year.

Meanwhile, the Republican controlled Prince William County (VA) Board of Supervisors sought to do something about illegal immigration in 2007. The Washington Post responded this past weekend by endorsing every single one of their Democratic opponents for Tuesday's election.

Immigration is an issue in many Northern Virginia races tomorrow, even though, complained the Post: "just 3.2 percent of Prince William residents named immigration as the issue they most wanted addressed."

Actually, two-thirds of Americans believe the United States is not doing enough to stem the tide of illegal immigration, according to an ABC News poll taken in September (San Jose Mercury News, November 3, 2007). Bill Clinton's old campaign manager, James Carville, announced on October 30 that illegal immigration was the issue among independents.

Meanwhile, Virginia's Republican organization was headed much of this year by amnesty advocate Ed Gillespie, who left his Virginia post at the end of June to serve as a top Bush Administration official.

Where is the enthusiasm?

The news media treats Ron Paul like a fringe candidate. Yet even before his campaign raised at least $3.5 million today, Ron Paul backers were doing whatever they possibly could to get their man elected. Even if all that someone does is vote repeatedly in an on-line poll, no one is paying him for his labor.

Ever since campaign finance reform, presidential races have been top-down affairs, dependent upon TV commercials and carefully crafted direct mail. Ron Paul's effort is a bottom-up affair, more appropriate in the age of the Internet.

The Internet means that campaign information is readily available to anyone interested enough to look for it. Sites like "Meet-Up" allow the like minded to find each other across the nation.

Ron Paul people are holding meet-ups, making their own signs and printing their own literature. Is this what we see from Giuliani activists? Are there volunteer Giuliani activists? And if not, why is Giuliani touted by the experts as a better choice for the GOP?

This is not a Ron Paul endorsement. It is a warning to all the other presidential candidates in both parties.

I have seen campaigns in which the Republican conservative grassroots was indifferent to the presidential choice of the Republican Party (1992, 1996) and campaigns in which a united conservative grassroots went all out for the Republican Party's standard bearer (1980).

The Ron Paul campaign's ability to rely upon motivated volunteers is reminiscent of Reagan's in 1980. In both cases, opportunists looking for a bandwagon to climb upon couldn't be bothered with a hopeless cause like Reagan or Paul.

The missing opportunists turned out to help, not hinder, the Reagan effort, especially after he lost the Iowa caucuses to George H.W. Bush..

The Ron Paul people won't be deterred by a string of losing primaries. Can the same thing be said of supporters of Giuliani, Hillary Clinton or Romney? And if not, why not?

Comments or complaints are welcome. E-mail them to me at jbouletATenglishfirst.org (replace AT with @).

Jim Boulet, Jr.

Executive Director

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