Tuesday, August 31, 2004

Most of us simply cannot believe that this election can even be close, much less locked in a dead-heat. That's not so much a judgment on Republicans as Bush; it's just impossible to understand how anyone can judge this guy's tenure a success.

Zogby has polled undecided voters. They don't like Bush's performance in office (disapproving by a 77-23 margin). But then they were asked "Do you or don't you like John Kerry as a person?" The results? Dislike--52%. Like--16%.

Monday, August 30, 2004

Since the beginning of Kerry's campaign it has been clear that there were a substantial number of veterans, and Vietnam veterans in particular, whose support he would never be able to attract because of his participation in the movement against the Vietnam War. ...

As a result, there was never any realistic possibility that Kerry would hold onto the support of many of these voters, even after his quite effective performance at the Democratic convention. All the Bush campaign needed to do was to make sure that these voters were made aware of Kerry's significant role in the anti-war movement of the early 1970's.

This is what the LA Times poll essentially found.

Friday, August 27, 2004

The U.S. Hispanic population, although about 60 percent Mexican-American, is anything but monolithic. And that makes targeting Hispanic voters -- or potential voters -- very complicated. "There are 10 different buttons that you have to push, depending on the [ethnic] community, the generations in America, the location, et cetera," said Kenneth McClintock, minority leader of the Puerto Rican Senate and a member of the Democratic National Committee. "What appeals politically to Mexican-Americans whose grandparents moved to Boston is very different from a Mexican who just crossed the border, so you have to push the button of each individual community." ...

"When I became chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus [in 1992], I made the mistake of referring to the views of Mexican-Americans on guns," said Rep. Serrano. "I learned that there were significant differences [among Hispanics] on gun control."

The different Hispanic communities have tended to focus chiefly on their own interests. For mainland Puerto Ricans, for example, prime concerns are their island's governance and their own continuing internal clashes over whether to seek statehood. For Cuban-Americans, the overriding priority is their island's future after Castro, who has ruled for 45 years. Haitians worry about the political turmoil on their impoverished island. Mexican-Americans are especially concerned about U.S. border-control policies. Last year, 340 people died trying to cross illegally into this country from Mexico.

Civil rights leaders also are targeting felons who have concluded their sentences, many of whom were denied the right to vote in 2000 because they had not received formal clemency from the state. Although the same law technically applies, a list of such registered voters — prepared by the Florida Elections Department under Republican Gov. Jeb Bush — was withdrawn after it was shown to contain many names of black men but not Hispanics, most of whom vote Republican in Florida. That means no list will be waiting at polling places to purge those would-be voters (emphasis added).

"We're going to be advertising on radio and in newspapers letting those people know they can vote," [Linda Johnson, president of the Belle Glade NAACP] said.

Tuesday, August 24, 2004

In nearly every case, interviewees said they didn't request an absentee ballot; they just got one in the mail. State law is clear that you don't get an absentee ballot unless you specifically ask for one, by phone or mail.

The Mulvaneys think it's highly suspicious that all those absentee ballots showed up at the same time Thomas did. They suspect that Thomas, who keeps a legal database of information gathered from absentee voters he registers, requested ballots for the voters.

Monday, August 23, 2004

Mr. Dole also sought to put the focus as much on Mr. Kerry's antiwar activities as on his war record, noting testimony Mr. Kerry gave to a Congressional committee in 1971.

"I mean, one day he's saying that we were shooting civilians, cutting off their ears, cutting off their heads, throwing away his medals or his ribbons," Mr. Dole said. "The next day he's standing there, 'I want to be president because I'm a Vietnam veteran.'"

Kerry has baited the trap himself. His constant "Let's talk about Vietnam. Let's compare my record to that of Bush" only makes things worse. ...

[Now Bush can say] "Why are you running on four months in Vietnam. What have you done since you got back?"

Kerry will then be forced to address his Senate record, or turn the topic back to Vietnam. If he includes so much as one reference, it will be Bush who gets to say "Enough about Vietnam already. I thought you wanted to talk about something else."