Saturday, August 11, 2007
Thoughts on Today's Iowa Straw Poll (Results and Analysis)
Results via Marc Ambinder (& NRO):
14,203 ballots were cast.
WIN: Gov Mitt Romney won the 2007 Ames straw poll, receiving 4516 votes, or 31%.
PLACE: Gov. Mike Huckabee finished second with 2587 votes at 18.1%
SHOW: Sen. Sam Brownback with 2192 votes and 15.3%
Tom Tancredo with 1961 votes, 13.7%
Ron Paul with 1305 votes, and 9.1%
Tommy Thompson, 1,009 votes, 7.3%
Fred Thompson with 231 votes, 1.4%
Rudy Giuliani with 183 votes, 1.3%
Duncan Hunter with 174 votes, 1.2%
John McCain with 101 votes, .7%.
John Cox with 41 votes, .3%
Three Thoughts
(1) The GOP base has not grown to love amnesty more.
McCain was well known as an amnesty supporter and foe of official English. He finished 10th.
Brownback has been both for and against amnesty, sometimes on the very same day Brownback also voted against official English in 2006. Even though Brownback could (and did) play the "fellow farmer" card in nearby Iowa, he barely beat Tom Tancredo for third place.
(2)Romney, Huckabee big winners today.
Rudy Giuliani may be leading in polls, but he is not loved by GOP activists. People traveled 100s of miles to help Ron Paul(see below). It seems they are barely willing to cross the street to vote for Giuliani.
Huckabee has essentially been running for vice-president since day one. Then-frontrunners McCain or Giuliani as GOP standard bearer would feel a need to send a "signal" to Christian conservatives,
such as nominating a Baptist minister like Huckabee for Vice President.
Tom Tancredo's speech seemed rushed while Tommy Thompson's did not. This is the difference between
a conservative activist turned politician (Tancredo) and a traditional politician. Tancredo needs to cut his material about 10% to allow more time to let it sink in. Otherwise, Tancredo's speech this afternoon was what he should have been doing from the beginning: focusing on immigration.
Iowa was the best hope for Ron Paul's anti-war message. In the past, Midwest states like Iowa has been more hospitable to doves/isolationists than other places.
Ron Paul supporters dominated the "Democrats" lines on C-SPAN (and the Republican lines too) before and after the straw poll. This is less helpful than Paul backers may think.
"Support the troops -- bring them home" (actual Ron Paul banner in Ames, Iowa today)
is read by most Republican activists as "I agree with Hollywood. Let's lose the war." Paul's speech in Ames today was far more traditional GOP than his remarks during the previous debates I have seen. Less pacifism and more spending cuts are a recipe for GOP voters to give Ron Paul a second look.
Mitt Romney won when he was expected to do so. That is harder than it looks, especially in a caucus or straw poll. Lots of Republicans tell me that only Rudy Giuliani is tough enough to beat Hillary. Romney showed some needed toughness of his own today. Former Massachusetts Governor Romney is also likely to win neighboring New Hampshire's primary in January, meaning if Romney can win
the Iowa caucus in December, everybody else would go into South Carolina's primary desperate for a win.
Even though there is talk Fred Thompson will enter the GOP race in September, I would be surprised to see him run now given today's results. Thompson is essentially Romney only with less executive experience. Had McCain won Iowa, there would be a reason for a new conservative in the race: conservative front-runner Romney had failed to slay the McCain dragon. But Romney did not fail.
(3) Ryan Sager on Ron Paul's 5th place showing:
Just got to the Ames Straw Poll after many mishaps... The first thing a
visitor notices: the Ron Paul presence. I predicted he'd come in 7th in the poll.
But the first thing you see when you get here is countless Ron Paul signs and Ron Paul workers. There' a giant Ron Paul sign right out front. Mitt Romney's got nothing on this guy... Now, I stand by my prediction ? heck, I stand by all of them until the vote comes down. I think most of these folks are from out-of-state, and thus can't vote. But I'll report back when I've had some time to walk around.
Well, I think I answered my Ron Paul question after battling the sun for about an hour... Out of staters, overwhelmingly. I went to talk to the five Ron Paul folks holding a big poster outside the entrance. 0-5. Not one from Iowa. They'd driven in from Kansas City, Missouri. One woman was from New Jersey.
I asked another guy holding a sign on the way in: Huntsville, Alabama.
I asked three more RP folks: Out of town.
I asked two more: Out of town.
I asked four more: Out of town.
I'd been told some Iowa Ron Paul supporters were holed up at his tent, so I headed over...
I asked three folks sitting and eating Ron Paul's food: Nope.
I approached another man: Finally, a guy from Iowa!
Oops... I ask him why he's supporting Ron Paul: "I don't know anything about him."
Oh well, maybe he was about to be converted.
Now, let me be clear: None of this means there are no Iowans supporting Ron Paul
at the Straw Poll today. We'll know the exact number of them around 7:00 p.m. And,
obviously, other candidates have lots of supporters in from out of state. But unless he places in the top four, there's a huge gap between the national activist showing and the ability to deliver votes in a geographically contained area ? once again proving that the Ron Paul phenomenon is a small group of people posting a lot of blog comments and swarming online polls.
Labels: 2008 candidates
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