Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Hispanic Vote Update
The Houston Chronicle reports:
The Pew Hispanic Center found an 11 percent swing of the Latino vote in favor of Democrats when this year's poll results were compared with those taken two years ago. The 11 percent compares with a 6 percent shift toward Democrats among non-Hispanic whites and a 3 percent change among blacks.
Latinos went 69 percent to 30 percent in favor of Democrats, compared with a 58-to-40-percent split two years ago and 61-to-37-percent four years ago.
Must have been the immigration issue? Er, no:
"It is important to note that immigration in the Latino population is never a top-tier issue," said Gabriel Escobar, associate director of the Pew Hispanic Center. "Nor is it for the rest of the population."
Of course, even pollsters disagree on the size of the "Hispanic vote":
The National Election Pool, which conducted polling for the media organizations, pegged her Hispanic support at 44 percent. The Velasquez exit poll, however, estimated that nearly 54 percent of Latino voters in Texas supported Hutchison to 36 percent for Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky.
And maybe, just maybe, there really isn't some monolithic Hispanic vote to win:
Adding to the complexity of deciphering the Hispanic vote is the fact that it spans different populations, said Nestor Rodriguez, co-director of the University of Houston's Center for Immigration Research. U.S.-born Hispanics may vote very differently from naturalized citizens or the young, he said.
"The seasoned Latino voters, they may have changed more because of the general concern of the war and dissatisfaction with Bush policies," Rodriguez said.
"Some new Latino voters who have become citizens may have been more affected by concerns of immigration."
Hispanic American voters act just like other American voters? This will be news only to a few Republican campaign consultants.
|posted by Jim on 7:33 PM|
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