Monday, August 30, 2004
Ruy Teixeira Whistles Past the Graveyard
Ruy Teixeira is a smart fellow who coauthored The Emerging Democratic Majority in 2002. Alas for his thesis, that particular majority has not yet manifested. Now he attempts to prove Kerry supporters need not fear their man's slippage in the polls:
Since the beginning of Kerry's campaign it has been clear that there were a substantial number of veterans, and Vietnam veterans in particular, whose support he would never be able to attract because of his participation in the movement against the Vietnam War. ...
As a result, there was never any realistic possibility that Kerry would hold onto the support of many of these voters, even after his quite effective performance at the Democratic convention. All the Bush campaign needed to do was to make sure that these voters were made aware of Kerry's significant role in the anti-war movement of the early 1970's.
This is what the LA Times poll essentially found.
And those grapes really were sour.
The Democratic Convention dwelt on Kerry's war record to the exclusion of everything else. Granted that their goal was not just to win veteran's votes but to demonstrate that their man would be a capable leader in the war on terror. Now they say there is nothing to worry about as veterans shun the Kerry-Edwards ticket in droves.
Pollsters are good at identifying segments of the electorate that campaigns should seek. They are less capable at calculating the cost of winning those votes. For example, they urge candidates to seek the "Hispanic vote" by promoting bilingual education and amnesty for illegal aliens. The required rhetoric will drive away Reagan Democrats and new immigrant citizens who followed the rules.
"Reporting for duty" Kerry's problem now is that a not unsubstantial number of Democrats backed "peace" candidates Dean and Kucinich during the primaries. A lot of those folks marched against the GOP and the Iraq war in New York yesterday.
The veterans are deserting Kerry. Should he lose a few more points in the polls, the "anybody but Bush" peaceniks may well follow. By trying to please everybody, Senator Kerry may well please no one.
|posted by Jim on 7:20 AM|
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